Why Gladwell’s 10,000-hour rule is wrong

There’s no magic number for becoming a world-beater, says science writer David Bradley, just ask the psychologist whose research formed the basis of the popular idea.

Being exceptional at something is often attributed to one’s genes. Talent is passed down from parents or grandparents it seems, whether it is musical or artistic skill, ability with numbers or being great at juggling. No doubt there are significant genetic factors involved, but there are almost certainly environmental factors in the mix too. Perhaps the two work together, one boosting the other, so that those remarkable genes give rise to remarkable talent only if the skills are suitably nurtured.

However, many people now recognise that talent is learned and earned through extended and intense practice of a skill. No pain, no gain, as they say, in which case genes may have little to do with it.

In essence, Ericsson’s theory suggests that sufficient practice in a particular skill can take anyone to a proficiency level equivalent to that of a top classical musician. To illustrate the point, Gladwell focuses on one of Ericsson’s key studies on violinists at Berlin’s Academy of Music. Students had begun playing at around five years of age, all putting in similar practice times, but by age eight, the practice times began to diverge, some practising more than others. By age twenty, the elite performers totalled 10,000 hours of practice each, while the merely good students had totalled 8,000 hours, and the lesser-able performers had just over 4,000 hours of practice.

Gladwell points out that all great sportspeople, performers and even computer programmers got in their 10,000 hours of practice in their particular art early in life, allowing them to shine while their less-diligent contemporaries were still grappling with the basics. For instance, he cites the figure of 10,000 hours in connection with the early days of The Beatles when they played almost endless nights in the clubs and bars of Hamburg, Germany, between 1960 and 1964. This opportunity gave them something few musicians had during that era – plenty of time to practice. Ultimately, says Gladwell, this is what made the Fab Four top musicians and songwriters.

Many of us imagine that hours and hours spent on our chosen pursuit are somehow edging us towards that target of 10,000. I’ve played guitar since the age of 12, but I don’t imagine that I’m anything but a total amateur – musically speaking – I’ve not put in the dedicated, repetitive practice. Anyone who has heard me strumming might suggest that I plug headphones into my guitar amp and practise for another 10,000 hours before letting anyone ever hear me play again.

One person who might agree is Ericsson, the psychologist on whose research Gladwell apparently based his interpretation of the 10,000-hour rule. Not because he has heard me play, but because this rule is not quite as it may seem.

To notch up 10,000 hours would require about 90 minutes of practice every day for 20 years. This might explain why the typical child learning the piano will never make it to concert level. Three hours a day gets you to that stage within a decade, so start at the age of ten and you’re done before you’re out of your teens.

Unfortunately, the moment the 10,000-hour mark is reached is not a skills tipping point – to use another phrase popularised by Gladwell. Learning and gaining experience are gradual processes; skills evolve slowly, with practice. And there is a vast range of time periods over which different individual reach their own peak of proficiency – their concert level, you might say – in whatever field.

In fact, one can attain international-level status in less time, especially if the area is less competitive. For instance, Ericsson and colleagues have found that college students could reach a world-class performance for memorising digits after only 500 to 1,000 hours of training.

But the question of whether or not 10,000, or even 25,000 hours of practice is enough does not tell us anything about whether some people are born with a particular talent. We do not yet know whether anyone with strong enough motivation and the spare time could become a virtuoso simply through deliberate practice, year in year out.

Scientifically speaking, 10,000 hours is not a precise figure but shorthand for “lots and lots of dedicated practice”. Even 10,000 hours of dedicated practice may not be enough to give you the skills of a virtuoso. But whether you dream of playing at the concert hall, wielding the guitar, or taking part on the running track, 10,000 hours is a good starting point. Double that and you may even be winning international competitions.